Annual Report 2020

Forecast Report

Business Outlook

Comparison of the Previous Forecasts with the Results from 2020

Despite the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 was a positive fiscal year for Vonovia. We achieved further growth in all operating segments. Thanks to our systematic and rapid crisis management, coupled with a high degree of digitalization, we were able to rise successfully to the challenges presented by the coronavirus crisis.

The coronavirus pandemic only had a minor impact on the Rental segment. In the Value-add segment, our modernization activities were only restricted temporarily, and only to a moderate degree, by the coronavirus crisis. In the Recurring Sales segment, there were a few isolated delays in apartment viewings. The Development segment performed well thanks to successful project developments and completions.

The table below provides an overview of the development of our forecast performance indicators, their target achievement level in the 2020 fiscal year as well as a forecast for the 2021 fiscal year.

At around € 4.4 billion, Total Tegment Revenue was up by 6.3% in 2020 as against the value of around € 4.1 billion achieved a year earlier, putting it on a par with the most recent forecast.

The Adjusted NAV per share came in at € 59.47 in 2020 on the prior-year value of € 52.00 (+14.4%). This includes effects from fair value adjustments of investment properties in the amount of € 3.7 billion in total (2019: € 4.1 billion). The distribution of the dividend – taking into account the scrip dividend with an acceptance rate of 40.7% (2019: 45.8%) – of € 504.6 million in 2020 had the opposite effect (2019: € 404.7 million). The EPRA NTA per share due to replace the Adjusted NAV per share in 2021 came in at € 62.71 in 2020 on the prior-year value of € 54.88 (+14.3%).

The Adjusted EBITDA Total rose by 8.5% from € 1,760.1 million to € 1,909.8 million. The latest forecast range was between € 1,875 million and € 1,925 million. In addition to the acquisition of Hembla effective from November 2019 (earnings contribution for the full year in 2020), the increase in adjusted EBITDA was also driven by organic growth resulting from new construction and modernization measures. All segments increased their adjusted EBITDA as against the previous year, the originally forecast slight drop in the Recurring Sales segment failed to materialize.

Group FFO rose by 10.6% from € 1,218.6 million in 2019 to € 1,348.2 million, ahead of the most recent forecast at the upper end of the forecast range of between € 1,275 million and € 1,325 million.

Customer satisfaction in 2020, measured using the performance indicator CSI, was up 8.6% on the previous year’s average, meaning it was also on a par with the level included in our most recent forecast. In the 2021 fiscal year, the CSI will be replaced by the Sustainability Performance Index. In addition to the CSI, the new index contains other key indicators that relate to our sustainability strategy (see the chapter on our management system ).

Forecast for the 2021 Fiscal Year

Our forecast for the 2021 fiscal year is based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments, the acquisition of Bien-Ries, possible opportunities and risks, and the expected impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. It also includes the key overall macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and our corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the section entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see chapter on Opportunities and Risks).

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

We expect that the coronavirus pandemic will not have a significant impact on the key operational and financial figures of any of the operating segments and therefore will have no noteworthy impact on future business development. We are currently observing stable demand for rental apartments and no negative impact on market values as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

We expect Total Segment Revenue to increase further in 2021. At the end of January 2020, the Berlin House of Representatives passed the Act on Rent Controls in the Housing Sector in Berlin (referred to in short as “rent freeze”). This came into force in February 2020. It remains disputed whether the law is constitutional. Assuming that the rent freeze is found to be constitutional, future rental income or rental development will have to be reduced for the period leading up to, and including, 2025. This could have a negative impact on fair values. Likewise, it cannot be ruled out that declining vacancy rates and fluctuation as well as lower return requirements of investors (yield compression) will subsequently have a compensatory effect on fair values. In addition, we expect the value of our company to increase further in 2021 and predict a moderate increase in EPRA NAV per share, leaving any further market-related changes in value out of the equation.

We predict that all operating segments will contribute to the increase in Adjusted EBITDA Total and Group FFO. The biggest absolute increases are expected to be seen in the Rental and Development segments. This is based, among other things, on the assumption that any potential CO2 tax can be apportioned to tenants under the German Ancillary Costs Ordinance (Betriebskostenverordnung).


Actual 2019

Forecast for 2020

Forecast for 2020 in the 2020 Q3 Report

Actual 2020

Forecast for 2021







Total Segment Revenue

€ 4.1 billion

€ 4.4 billion

€ 4.4 billion

€ 4.9–5.1 billion

Adjusted NAV per share*

€ 52.00



€ 59.47


EPRA NTA per share*

€ 54.88

€ 62.71


Adjusted EBITDA Total

€ 1,760.1 million

€ 1,875–1,925 million

€ 1,875–1,925 million

€ 1,909.8 million

€ 1,975–2,025 million

Group FFO

€ 1,218.6 million

€ 1,275–1,325 million

At the upper end of € 1,275–1,325 million

€ 1,348.2 million

€ 1,415–1,465 million

Group FFO per share*

€ 2.25



€ 2.38


Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI)

Decrease of 8.0%

Scale slightly above previous year

Scale significantly above previous year

Increase of 8.6%


Sustainablility Performance Index (SPI)


Rental revenue

€ 2,074.9 million

€ ~2,300 million

€ ~2.3 billion

€ 2,285.9 million

€ 2.3–2.4 billion

Organic rent growth (eop)


Increase of ~4.0%**

Increase of ~3.1%***


Increase of ~3.0–3.8%*****

Modernization and new constuction

€ 1,489.5 million

€ 1.3–1.6 billion

~€ 1.5 billion

€ 1,343.9 million

€ 1.3–1.6 billion

Number of units sold Recurring Sales






Step-up Recurring Sales







Based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.


Without one-time decrease pursuant to the Act on Rent Controls in the Housing Sector in Berlin (MietenWoG Bln).


The forecast contains a one-time decrease pursuant to the Act on Rent Controls in the Housing Sector in Berlin (MietenWoG Bln).


Introduction of a new non-financial performance indicator SPI in the 2021 financial year that includes the previous CSI. Therefore no guidance.


Depending on whether or not the Act on Rent Controls in the Housing Sector in Berlin (MietenWoG Bln) is found to be constitutional at the end of 2021, we expect rent increases at the upper/lower end of the forecast.

Bochum, Germany, February 23, 2021

The Management Board

Signature Rolf Buch (Signature)

Rolf Buch

Signature Arnd Fittkau (Signature)

Arnd Fittkau

Signature Helene von Roeder (Signature)

Helene von Roeder

Signature Daniel Riedl (Signature)

Daniel Riedl

Adjusted EBITDA Total (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization)
Adjusted EBITDA Total is the result before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (including income from other operational investments and intragroup profits) adjusted for effects that do not relate to the period, recur irregularly and that are atypical for business operation, and for net income from fair value adjustments to investment properties. These non-recurring items include the development of new fields of business and business processes, acquisition projects, expenses for refinancing and equity increases (where not treated as capital procurement costs), IPO preparation costs and expenses for pre-retirement part-time work arrangements and severance payments. The Adjusted EBITDA Total is derived from the sum of the Adjusted EBITDA Rental, Adjusted EBITDA Value-add, Adjusted EBITDA Recurring Sales and Adjusted EBITDA Development.
CSI (Customer Satisfaction Index)
The CSI is determined at regular intervals by means of systematic customer surveys and reflects how our services are perceived and accepted by our customers. The CSI is determined on the basis of points given by the customers for our properties and their neighborhood, customer service and commercial and technical support as well as maintenance and modernization management.
The presentation of the NAV based on the EPRA definition aims to show the net asset value in a long-term business model. The equity attributable to Vonovia’s shareholders is adjusted to reflect deferred taxes on investment properties, the fair value of derivative financial instruments and the deferred taxes on derivative financial instruments. In order to boost transparency, an adjusted NAV, which involves eliminating goodwill in full, is also reported.
Fair Value
Fair value is particularly relevant with regard to valuation in accordance with IAS 40 in conjunction with IFRS 13. The fair value is the amount for which an asset could be exchanged between knowledgeable, willing parties in an arm’s length transaction.
Group FFO
Group FFO reflects the recurring earnings from the operating business. In addition to the adjusted EBITDA for the Rental, Value-add, Recurring Sales and Development segments, Group FFO allows for recurring current net interest expenses from non-derivative financial instruments as well as current income taxes. This key figure is not determined on the basis of any specific international reporting standard but is to be regarded as a supplement to other performance indicators determined in accordance with IFRS.
Modernization Measures
Modernization measures are long-term and sustainable value-enhancing investments in housing and building stocks. Energy-efficient refurbishments generally involve improvements to the building shell and communal areas as well as the heat and electricity supply systems. Typical examples are the installation of heating systems, the renovation of balconies and the retrofitting of prefabricated balconies as well as the implementation of energy-saving projects, such as the installation of double-glazed windows and heat insulation, e. g., facade insulation, insulation of the top story ceilings and basement ceilings. In addition to modernization of the apartment electrics, the refurbishment work upgrades the apartments, typically through the installation of modern and/or accessible bathrooms, the installation of new doors and the laying of high-quality and non-slip flooring. Where required, the floor plans are altered to meet changed housing needs.
Recurring Sales
The Recurring Sales segment includes the regular and sustainable disposals of individual condominiums from our portfolio. It does not include the sale of entire buildings or land (Non-core Disposals). These properties are only sold as and when the right opportunities present themselves, meaning that the sales do not form part of our operating business within the narrower sense of the term. Therefore, these sales will be reported under “Other” in our segment reporting.
Rental Income
Rental income refers to the current gross income for rented units as agreed in the corresponding lease agreements before the deduction of non-transferable ancillary costs. The rental income from the Austrian property portfolio additionally includes maintenance and improvement contributions (EVB). The rental income from the portfolio in Sweden reflects inclusive rents, meaning that the amounts contain operating and heating costs.
Sustainability Performance Index (SPI)
Index to measure non-financial performance. A performance indicator introduced at Vonovia in January 2021 consisting of key figures on the CO2 intensity of the portfolio, primary energy requirements in new buildings, (partial) modernization measures to make apartments fully accessible, customer and employee satisfaction, and diversity within the management ranks.
Vacancy Rate
The vacancy rate is the number of empty units as a percentage of the total units owned by the company. The vacant units are counted at the end of each month.