Annual Report 2019

Forecast Report

Business Outlook

Comparison of the Previous Forecasts With the Results From 2019

The 2019 fiscal year was once again very successful for Vonovia on the whole. We systematically continued to pursue our corporate strategy. By way of example, we forged ahead with the construction of new apartments and moves to modernize our real estate portfolio, and further expanded our market Presence in Sweden with the acquisitions of the Akelius portfolios and Hembla. As reported, all four business segments showed positive development on the whole.

The table below provides an overview of the development of our forecast performance indicators, their target achievement level in the 2019 fiscal year as well as a forecast for the 2020 fiscal year. The most recently published forecast for the 2019 fiscal year did not include the effects of the Hembla acquisition (with the exception of Adjusted NAV).

Our Adjusted NAV per share came in at € 51.93 in 2019, in line with the initial forecast and up 15.7% on the prior-year value of € 44.90 and was therefore within the latest forecast range of € 51.50–53.00. This includes effects from fair value adjustments of investment properties in the amount of € 4.1 billion in total (2018: € 3.5 billion). The distribution of the dividend – taking into account the scrip dividend (acceptance rate 45.8%) – of € 404.7 million in 2019 had the opposite effect.

The Adjusted EBITDA Total rose by 13.2% from € 1,554.8 million to € 1,760.1 million. This means that, excluding the earnings contribution made by Hembla of € 9.6 million that is included in this figure, the Adjusted EBITDA Total would be exactly at the upper end of the most recent forecast range of between € 1,700 million and € 1,750 million and over the range of between € 1,650 and € 1,700 million forecast at the beginning of the 2018 financial year. In addition to organic growth from new construction and modernization, the increase in EBITDA was driven by the acquisitions in Sweden in 2019. All segments increased their adjusted EBITDA as against the previous year; the originally forecast slight drop in the Recurring Sales segment failed to materialize. The IFRS 16 accounting standard was also adopted for the first time in 2019. The resulting effect on the Adjusted EBITBA Total amounted to € 29.9 million in total. This effect is eliminated in the Group FFO reconciliation.

Group FFO rose by 7.7% from € 1,132.0 million in 2018 to € 1,218.6 million, putting it exactly at the upper end of the latest forecast range of between € 1,165 million and € 1,215 million. This means that the range of € 1,140 million and € 1,190 million forecast at the start of the year in the 2018 annual report was exceeded. Hembla is included in Group FFO in 2019 with a volume of € 3.8 million.

Customer satisfaction in 2019, measured using the performance indicator CSI, was down 8.0% on the previous year, meaning it also fell short of the level included in our most recent forecast. This means that it was not possible to achieve the slight increase in the CSI forecast at the start of the year in the 2018 annual report.

Forecast for the 2020 Fiscal Year

Our forecast for the 2020 fiscal year is based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments, the acquisition of Hembla as well as possible opportunities and risks. It also includes the key overall macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and our corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections entitled Development of the Economy and the Industry and Fundamental Information About the Group. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks (see chapter on Opportunities and Risks). As things stand, we do not anticipate any significant effects associated with the current debate and situation surrounding the rent freeze in Berlin.

The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the annual financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made. The forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.

The increase in Adjusted EBITDA total and Group FFO will be driven, in particular, by the Rental and Development segments, whereas a slight drop is expected in the Recurring Sales segment. We expect the value of our company to increase further in 2020 and predict a moderate increase in Adjusted NAV per share.

 

Actual 2018

Forecast for 2019

Forecast for 2019 in the 2019 Q3 Report

Actual 2019

Forecast for 2020

*

Based on the shares carrying dividend rights on the reporting date.

**

Without possible one-time decrease pursuant to the Act For Rent Limitation In The Housing Sector In Berlin (MietenWoG Bln).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted NAV per share

€ 44.90

suspended

€ 51.50–53.00

€ 51.93

suspended

Adjusted EBITDA Total

€ 1,554.8 million

€ 1,650–1,700 million

upper end of range € 1,700–1,750 million

€ 1,760.1 million

€ 1,875–1,925 million

Group FFO

€ 1,132.0 million

€ 1,140–1,190 million

upper end of range € 1,165–1,215 million

€ 1,218.6 million

€ 1,275–1,325 million

Group FFO per share*

€ 2.18

€ 2.20–2.30

upper end of range € 2.15–2.24

€ 2.25

suspended

Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI)

Decrease of 2.6%

Up slightly year-over-year

Single-digit percent decrease year-over-year

Decrease of 8.0%

Up slightly year-over-year

Rental income

€ 1,894.2 million

€ 2,020–2,070 million

€ ~2,040 million

€ 2,074.9 million

€ ~2,300 million

Organic rent increase

4.4%

Increase of ~4.4%

Increase of ~4.0%

3.9%

Increase of ~4.0%**

Maintenance incl. capitalized maintenance

€ 430.4 million

€ 481.6 million

Modernization and new construction

€ 1,139.0 million

€ 1,300–1,600 million

€ ~1,400 million

€ 1,489.5 million

€ 1,300–1,600 million

Number of units sold Recurring Sales

2,818

~2,500

~2,500

2,607

~2,500

Step-up Recurring Sales

35.5%

~30%

30%

41.3%

~30%

Bochum, Germany, February 25, 2020

The Management Board

Rolf Buch (CEO) (Signature)

Rolf Buch
(CEO)

Arnd Fittkau (CRO) (Signature)

Arnd Fittkau
(CRO)

Helene von Roeder (CFO) (Signature)

Helene von Roeder
(CFO)

Daniel Riedl (CDO) (Signature)

Daniel Riedl
(CDO)

Group FFO
Group FFO reflects the recurring earnings from the operating business. In addition to the adjusted EBITDA for the Rental, Value-add, Recurring Sales and Development segments, Group FFO allows for recurring current net interest expenses from non-derivative financial instruments as well as current income taxes. This key figure is not determined on the basis of any specific international reporting standard but is to be regarded as a supplement to other performance indicators determined in accordance with IFRS.
Adjusted EBITDA Total (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization)
Adjusted EBITDA Total is the result before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (including income from other operational investments and intragroup profits) adjusted for effects that do not relate to the period, recur irregularly and that are atypical for business operation, and for net income from fair value adjustments to investment properties. These non-recurring items include the development of new fields of business and business processes, acquisition projects, expenses for refinancing and equity increases (where not treated as capital procurement costs), IPO preparation costs and expenses for pre-retirement part-time work arrangements and severance payments. The Adjusted EBITDA Total is derived from the sum of the Adjusted EBITDA Rental, Adjusted EBITDA Value-add, Adjusted EBITDA Recurring Sales and Adjusted EBITDA Development.
Fair Value
Fair value is particularly relevant with regard to valuation in accordance with IAS 40 in conjunction with IFRS 13. The fair value is the amount for which an asset could be exchanged between knowledgeable, willing parties in an arm’s length transaction.
Recurring Sales
The Recurring Sales segment includes the regular and sustainable disposals of individual condominiums from our portfolio. It does not include the sale of entire buildings or land (Non-core disposals). These properties are only sold as and when the right opportunities present themselves, meaning that the sales do not form part of our operating business within the narrower sense of the term. Therefore, these sales will be reported under “Other” in our segment reporting.
EPRA NAV/Adjusted NAV
The presentation of the NAV based on the EPRA definition aims to show the net asset value in a long-term business model. The equity attributable to Vonovia’s shareholders is adjusted to reflect deferred taxes on investment properties, the fair value of derivative financial instruments and the deferred taxes on derivative financial instruments. In order to boost transparency, an adjusted NAV, which involves eliminating goodwill in full, is also reported.
CSI (Customer Satisfaction Index)
The CSI is determined at regular intervals by means of systematic customer surveys and reflects how our services are perceived and accepted by our customers. The CSI is determined on the basis of points given by the customers for our properties and their neighborhood, customer service and commercial and technical support as well as maintenance and modernization management.