Business Outlook
Vonovia can report positive business development in the first six months of the 2021 fiscal year despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The Rental, Recurring Sales and Value-add segments showed positive development. The Development segment reported a moderate downward trend. Unlike in the previous year, this segment contains Bien Ries (now operating under BUWOG – Rhein-Main Development GmbH), which was acquired at the beginning of April 2020, in the first six months of 2021.
The forecast for the 2021 fiscal year was based on the accounting principles used in the consolidated financial statements. The current forecast does not take account of any larger acquisitions of real estate portfolios.
Our forecast for the 2021 fiscal year is based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and considers current business developments, possible opportunities and risks, and the potential impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It also includes the key overall macroeconomic developments and the economic factors that are relevant to the real estate industry and our corporate strategy. Further information is provided in the sections of the 2020 Group management report entitled “Fundamental Information About the Group” and “Development of the Economy and the Industry.”
Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks. These have also been described in the chapter on opportunities and risks in the 2020 Group management report.
We expect that the coronavirus pandemic will not have a significant impact on the key operational and financial figures and therefore will have no impact on future business development.
We expect total segment revenue to increase further in 2021. We are also currently observing stable demand for rental apartments and no negative impact on market values as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Vonovia predicts that all operating segments will contribute to the increase in Adjusted EBITDA Total and Group FFO. The biggest absolute increases are expected to be seen in the Rental and Development segments. This is based, among other things, on the assumption that CO2 tax can be apportioned to tenants under the German Ancillary Costs Ordinance (Betriebskostenverordnung).
In addition, we expect the value of our company to increase in 2021 and predict a moderate increase in EPRA NTA per share, leaving any further market-related changes in value out of the equation. We expect the high level of customer satisfaction to continue. The reduction of carbon emissions is working better than expected.
The following table provides an overview of our forecast and presents material and selected key figures.
|
Actual 2020 |
Forecast for 2021 |
Forecast for 2021 in the 2021 Q1 Report |
Forecast for 2021 in the 2021 H1 Report |
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|
|
|
|
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Total Segment Revenue |
€ 4.4 billion |
€ 4.9–5.1 billion |
€ 4.9–5.1 billion |
€ 4.9–5.1 billion |
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EPRA NTA per share* |
€ 62.71 |
suspended |
suspended |
suspended |
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Adjusted EBITDA Total |
€ 1,909.8 million |
€ 1,975–2,025 million |
€ 1,975–2,025 million |
€ 2,055–2,105 million |
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Group FFO |
€ 1,348.2 million |
€ 1,415–1,465 million |
€ 1,415–1,465 million |
€ 1,465–1,515 million |
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Group FFO per share* |
€ 2.38 |
suspended |
suspended |
suspended |
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Sustainability Performance Index (SPI) |
– |
~100% |
~100% |
~105% |
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Revenue in the Rental segment |
€ 2,285.9 million |
€ 2.3–2.4 billion |
€ 2.3–2.4 billion |
€ 2.3–2.4 billion |
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Organic rent growth (eop) |
3.1% |
Increase of ~3.0–3.8%** |
Increase of ~3.8% |
Increase of ~3.8% |
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Modernization and new construction |
€ 1,343.9 million |
€ 1.3–1.6 billion |
€ 1.3–1.6 billion |
€ 1.3–1.6 billion |
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Number of units sold Recurring Sales |
2,442 |
~2,500 |
~2,500 |
~2,800 |
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Fair value step-up Recurring Sales |
39.6% |
~30% |
~30% |
>35% |
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Bochum, Germany, July 28, 2021
The Management Board