Business Outlook
The first nine months of the 2019 fiscal year were very successful for Vonovia on the whole. We were systematic in continuing to implement our corporate strategy. All business segments showed positive development.
We expect these positive developments to continue in the 2019 fiscal year and that we will achieve our forecast figures. Given the dynamic development of the German, Austrian and Swedish housing markets, we expect to see a further increase in value in our investment properties and, with this, a moderate increase to Adjusted NAV per share. Based on the first preliminary indicators, we expect to see an effect from the valuation of investment properties as well as capitalized modernization costs, in the form of an increase in value between around € 2.1 billion and € 2.8 billion compared with June 30, 2019. We do not expect significant effects from the current discussion about the rent freeze.
Our current forecast for 2019 and the outlook for 2020 are based on determined and updated corporate planning for the Vonovia Group as a whole, and consider current business developments, the acquisition of Hembla as well as possible opportunities and risks. Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks. These have been described in detail in the chapter on opportunities and risks in the Group management report of the 2018 Annual Report. The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the annual financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made.
Our current forecast for 2019 and the outlook for 2020 in respect of the main performance indicators has been updated in accordance with the accounting principles/provisions applied in the 2019 quarterly financial statements, including first-time application of IFRS 16:
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Actual 2018 |
Forecast 2019 |
Forecast for 2019 in the 2019 H1 Report |
Forecast for 2019 in the 2019 Q3 Report |
Outlook 2020 |
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Adjusted NAV per share |
€ 44.90 |
suspended |
suspended |
€ 51.50–53.00 |
suspended |
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Adjusted EBITDA Total |
€ 1,554.8 million |
€ 1,650–1,700 million |
€ 1,700–1,750 million |
upper end |
€ 1,875–1,925 million |
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Group FFO |
€ 1,132.0 million |
€ 1,140–1,190 million |
€ 1,165–1,215 million |
upper end |
€ 1,275–1,325 million |
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Group FFO per share* |
€ 2.18 |
€ 2.20–2.30 |
€ 2.15–2.24 |
upper end |
suspended |
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Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) |
Decrease of 2.6% |
Up slightly year-on-year |
Single-digit percentage below prior year |
Single-digit percentage below prior year |
Up slightly year-on-year |
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Rental income |
€ 1,894.2 million |
€ 2,020–2,070 million |
€ 2,020–2,070 million |
approx. € 2,040 million |
approx. € 2,300 million |
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Organic rent increase |
4.4% |
Increase of approx. 4.4% |
Increase of approx. 4.4% |
Increase of approx. 4.0% |
Increase of approx. 4.0% |
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Maintenance incl. capitalized maintenance |
€ 430.4 million |
– |
- |
– |
– |
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Modernization and new construction |
€ 1,139.0 million |
€ 1,300–1,600 million |
€ 1,300–1,600 million |
approx. € 1,400 million |
€ 1,300–1,600 million |
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Number of units sold Recurring Sales |
2,818 |
approx. 2,500 |
approx. 2,500 |
approx. 2,500 |
approx. 2,500 |
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Step-up Recurring Sales |
35.5% |
approx. 30% |
approx. 30% |
> 30% |
approx. 30% |
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Number of units sold Non-core Disposals |
12,284 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
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Step-up Non-core Disposals |
23.0% |
– |
– |
– |
– |
Bochum, Germany, October 28, 2019
The Management Board