Business Outlook

As described, the first nine months of the 2018 fiscal year were very successful for Vonovia on the whole. We were systematic in the implementation of our corporate strategy: internationalization, the expansion of our investment program, the further improvements to efficiency when managing our properties and the expansion of the Value-add Business. With the acquisitions of BUWOG and Victoria Park, we were able to further expand our leading market position.

We expect these positive business developments to continue for the rest of the 2018 fiscal year and that we will achieve our forecast figures. Given the dynamic development of the housing market, we expect to see a further increase in value in our investment properties and with this a further boost to NAV. Based on the first preliminary indicators, we expect to see an effect from the valuation of investment properties as well as capitalized modernization costs, in the form of an increase in value between around € 2.7 billion and € 3.0 billion compared with June 30, 2018.

Our current forecast is based on the outlook for the Vonovia Group as a whole, which includes the original overall plans for the 2018 fiscal year, as well as current business developments and possible opportunities and risks.

Beyond this, the Group’s further development remains exposed to general opportunities and risks. These have been described in detail in the chapter on opportunities and risks in the Group management report of the 2017 Annual Report. The forecast was based on the accounting principles used in the annual financial statements, with the adjustments described elsewhere in the management report being made.

Our forecast for the main performance indicators for the 2018 fiscal year is as follows. All figures in the current forecast include effects from the acquisitions of BUWOG and Victoria Park:

 

 

Actual 2017

 

Forecast for 2018*

 

Current Forecast for 2018 Interim Financial Report H1 2018

 

Current Forecast for 2018 Interim Statement Q3 2018

*

According to the Group management report for 2017, excl. BUWOG, Victoria Park.

**

Based on the current number of shares in each case.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted EPRA NAV/share

 

€ 38.49

 

suspended

 

suspended

 

approx. € 45

EPRA NAV/share

 

€ 43.88

 

suspended

 

suspended

 

approx. € 52

FFO 1

 

€ 920.8 million

 

€ 960–980 million

 

€ 1,050–1,070 million

 

€ 1,050–1,070 million

FFO 1/share**

 

€ 1.90

 

€ 1.98–2.02

 

€ 2.03–2.07

 

€ 2.03–2.07

CSI

 

Increase of 1.6%

 

Similar CSI as 2017

 

Magnitude as 2017

 

Slightly below previous year

Rental income

 

€ 1,667.9 million

 

€ 1,660–1,680 million

 

€ 1,890–1,910 million

 

€ 1,890–1,910 million

Organic rent increase

 

4.2%

 

Increase of 4.6–4.8%

 

Increase of approx. 4.4%

 

Increase of approx. 4.4%

Vacancy rate

 

2.5%

 

< 2.5%

 

< 2.5%

 

< 2.5%

Maintenance incl. capitalized maintenance

 

€ 346.2 million

 

approx. € 360 million

 

approx. € 410 million

 

approx. € 410 million

Modernization and new construction

 

€ 778.6 million

 

approx. € 1,000 million

 

approx. € 1,000 million

 

approx. € 1,000 million

Number of units sold Privatize

 

2,608

 

approx. 2,300

 

approx. 2,800

 

approx. 2,800

Step-up Privatize

 

32.6%

 

approx. 30%

 

30–35%

 

approx. 35%

Number of units sold Sell portfolio cluster

 

9,172

 

Continue opportunistic sales

 

up to 14,000

 

approx. 13,000

Step-up Sell portfolio cluster

 

7.9%

 

> 0%

 

10–15%

 

> 20%

Our FFO 1 forecast includes earnings contributions in the amount of approximately € 30 million from BUWOG and approximately € 20 million from Victoria Park.

Bochum, Germany, November 27, 2018

Management Board